In other words: A discussion of The Bush Administration
"Election Fraud" RoundupLook if all this proves without a doubt there was no fraud then that is wonderful. Sure I want Kerry to win, but I would rather live in the real world and know two things:
- An Interesting piece on Zogby: I Smell a Rat
By 3 AM, conversation had died and we were grimly sipping beers and watching as those two key states seemed to be slipping further and further to crimson. Suddenly, a friend who had left two hours earlier rushed in and handed us a printout.
"Zogby's calling it for Kerry." He smacked the sheet decisively. "Definitely. He's got both Florida and Ohio in the Kerry column. Kerry only needs one." Satisfied, we went to bed, confident we would wake with the world a better place. Victory was at hand.
The morning told a different story, of course. No Florida victory for Kerry--Bush had a decisive margin of nearly 400,000 votes. Ohio was not even close enough for Kerry to demand that all the votes be counted. The pollsters had been dead wrong, Bush had four more years and a powerful mandate. Onward Christian soldiers--next stop, Tehran.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics
I work with statistics and polling data every day. Something rubbed me the wrong way. I checked the exit polls for Florida--all wrong. CNN's results indicated a Kerry win: turnout matched voter registration, and independents had broken 59% to 41% for Kerry.
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In the second scenario I assumed that Bush had actually got 100% of the vote from Republicans and 50% from independents (versus CNN polling results which were 93% and 41% respectively). If this gave enough votes for Bush to explain the county's results, I left the amount of Democratic registered voters ballots cast for Bush as they were predicted by CNN (14% voted for Bush). If this did not explain the result, I calculated how many Democrats would have to vote for Bush.
In 41 of 52 counties, this did not explain the result and Bush must have gotten more than CNN's predicted 14% of Democratic ballots--not an unreasonable assumption by itself. However, in 21 counties more than 50% of Democratic votes would have to have defected to Bush to account for the county result--in four counties, at least 70% would have been required. These results are absurdly unlikely.- If you hope that simply counting the provisional ballots will be enough to some how change Ohio from red to blue, then I'm sad to say you will be disappointed: Chairman vows to meet count deadline
Of the 1,548 investigated so far, fewer than half - 709 - were considered to be valid.Forgetting the fact that I would certainly have my vote discounted because my signature differs dramatically based on caffeine intake, I find the statement "deemed to be empty" a little... odd.
Of those found to be disqualified, 494 were cast by people not registered to vote; 218 were cast in the wrong precinct; 57 did not include a required statement by the voter affirming that they are qualified to vote, and 29 were found to contain signatures different from the signature the voter had on file, said Ms. Hicks-Hudson. She added that 41 provisional ballot envelopes were deemed to be empty.
- Olbermann is on vacation but is still occasionally blogging about the issue: from a SECURE UNDISCLOSED LOCATION
On Friday, David Shuster, who has already done some excellent research at Hardblogger, did a piece on the mess for Hardball, and Chris followed up with a discussion with Joe Trippi and Susan Molinari. There was a cogent, reasoned, unexcited piece about the mechanics of possible tampering and/or machine failure on CNN's "Next" yesterday, and Saturday alone there were serious news pieces in the Cincinnati Enquirer, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Los Angeles Times, Salt Lake Tribune, and Seattle Post-Intelligencer. NPR did a segment of its "On The Media" on the topic (with said blogger as the guest).Thank you! So the exit polls were wrong but the same people saying that (in effort to protect a Bush Presidency) are happily noting that those polls proved that Kerry lost because he doesn't hate gays.
And today the New York Times continues its series of "Making Vote Counts" editorials with a pretty solid stance on the necessity of journalistic and governmental proof that the elections weren't tampered with, nor the victims of Speak & Spell toys retro-fitted as electronic voting units. By way of contrast, though, the Houston Chronicle has an editorial so puerile that it may be the most naïve thing I?ve ever read that was actually written by a grown-up.
I suspect the coverage is going to go through the roof as the news spreads that Nader has gotten his recount in New Hampshire, and that the Greens and Libertarians are actually going to get their Ohio recount.
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Oh and by the way: how come the "Kerry's winning" part of the election night exit polling is presumed to have been wrong, or tampered with, but the "Moral Values" part of the same polling is graded flawless, and marks the dawn of a new American century?
- Again I think the big story here that will really alert people to fraud (if it occurred) is what is happening in New Jersey: Nader gets recount in New Hampshire
Washington, DC, Nov. 12 (UPI) -- Former independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader will get his vote recount in 11 counties in New Hampshire, the Nader campaign said Friday.
After submitting their initial written request Nov. 5, the campaign was able to raise the $2,000 needed to begin a vote recount, after receiving an extension from the New Hampshire attorney general. According to the campaign, certain precincts appeared "suspicious" with an unusual number of votes favoring President George W. Bush.
- Bush won legitimately and I (and others) need to deal with that reality and work on how to get our believes and ideals attention in this reality.
- That though I don't like the results I will be so happy to know that America still is a democracy and that votes still count. I'd rather have (in my opinion) stupid votes counted then have stupid votes made up by some crony somewhere.
- rob 3:06 PM - [PermaLink] -
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