Pollwonker

I know, I know, all you think I do is bitch and gripe, then suddenly the big turnaround. Well there's reason to hope, if you can make sense of these things. Personally I feel the "statistical dead heat" is a bunch of bullshit, and another drastic media effort to Push in the Bush, but decide for yourselves and by all means go and vote, even if it's for the Martians:

From politicalstrategy.org:

Top 35 Trends that say Kerry will Take the White House in November

1) Bush must lead by 4%: Professor Alan of the Emerging Democratic Majority shows that Bush must go into November 2 with an average of at least a 4% lead in such polls if he is to have any sort of hope for four more years.

2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon: Traditional polling relies almost exclusively on landline telephone. Unfortunately, according to Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report , as much as 18% of the electorate don't have land lines and instead rely exclusively on cell phones. The Hill gives us a little something about this demographic :In-Stat.MDR, a wireless market-research firm based in Scottsdale, Ariz., conducted a survey of wireless users in February of this year. Of the 970 people questioned, 14.4 percent were cell-phone-only users, the majority of whom were single Americans between the ages of 18 and 24, living in mostly urban areas.Anyone care to venture a guess as to how this demographic overwhelmingly votes?Yup. According to Newsweek (10/16/04), Young voters (18-29) favor Kerry/Edwards by 9 points.

3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster: Zogby, which touts the most accurate polls for the last two presidential elections , calls for a very strong Kerry victory. He has referred to the race as "Kerry's to lose."In 2000, Zogby was one of several pollsters that was only two cumulative percentage points off from the actual, but it was the only one in that group to actually choose Gore as the winner (which we all know he was). In 1996, Zogby hit the nail right on the head. Sure, everyone predicted a Clinton victory, but Zogby predicted the exact percentage totals for Clinton, Dole...and even Perot at 8%.

4) Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States: Kerry is doing extremely well where it matters, leading Bush by 10% in the swing states. According to the Washington post .

5) PA Goes to Kerry:Pennsylvania is NOT in play ! (and neither is New Jersey. Don't let the GOP Poll 'Strategic Vision' fool you.) That leaves Ohio and Florida as the next target.

6) Seniors Favor Kerry: Also, Among Registered Voters in a 3-way matchup, seniors favor Kerry over Bush by a large margin. According to Newsweek, Seniors (65+) favor Kerry/Edwards by 15 points, 54-39. The 65+ Category is particularly important in Florida where this age group make up a disproportionately large percentage of the voting population.

7) Kerry Appeals to Independents in the Debates: Polls showed that Kerry gained favor from swing voters as a result of his performance. Many more people had increased positive perceptions of Kerry as a result of the debates than the number of people who an increased positive perception for Bush. Conversely (I think), The number of those whose perception of Kerry grew more negative was less than the number of those whose perception of Bush grew more negative as a result.

8) Kerry Appeals to independents... Period.: In polling, self-proclaimed independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40.

9) New Standard for GOTV: GOTV efforts were allocated $25 million by the DNC in the 2000 election cycle. This year they will commit about the same. The difference, however, comes with a new 527 called America Coming Together , a group that will be devoting at least $125 million toward the GOTV effort . They will also be adding an expertise, coordination and organization unseen in prior years.

10) Democrats Won the Registration Wars: Voter Registrations have heavily favored the Democratic party this cycle. Dems have made significant gains on Republicans in numbers of party affiliated registrations in practically every swing state.

Debate Effect

11) Kerry Erased Doubts About Himself: The Debates erased many of the doubts held by undecideds as Kerry showed a man that was poised, consistent, tough, intelligent, able to think on his feet and keep his cool. He was a man with a plan for everything. Dare I say - He was 'presidential'...and he didn't need a transmitter to pull it off. Kerry was also successful in countering the nonsense charges of 'flip-flopping'.

12) Bush Increased Doubts About Himself: The debates raised doubts about Bush. He was inept, incoherent, repetitive, negative, inconsistent and lacking in identity. (Which debate had the 'real' Bush?). He was unable to defend his record and unable to conjure any meaningful new attacks on Kerry. Bush did succeed in one facet of the debates. He succeeded in spurring two rumors that might explain his dubious debate performances. One, that he was "hooked up" to his handlers via a transmitter hidden under his suit coat. And two. That he had suffered a mild stroke or some sort of onsetting dementia.

Now (Election 2004) vs. Then (Election 2000)

13) Ralph Nader: Nader is less of an issue this year, although he could still quite probably throw some swing states to the evil one. In any event, Nader is on the ballot in fewer states (but still on in Florida) than in 2000, and hopefully most Naderites will realize by Nov 2 that four more years of bush will finish the job of destroying everything that they claim to hold dear.

14) Howard Dean: The Dean Revolution has given rise to a new generation of Democratic voters and activists. It has given hope to a previously undercounted, underappreciated and underestimated demographic. It has rewritten the book on how elections are played. Long live Howard Dean. Yaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrhhh!!!

15) Michael Moore: The 'Moore Effect' and Fahrenheit 911. Love it or leave it, polls show that the film had significant influence on the impressions that 'uncommitted' voters had of Bush. In addition, most anecdotal evidence suggests that those self-proclaimed independents who saw it were 'disgusted and disturbed' with Bush - not exactly words of likely Bush voters.

16) George Soros: The Republicans have always had their sugar daddies to fund all their wacky pet projects -- Scaife, Coors, the Waltons, and others. Now we have one that, if not funding all our wacky pet projects, is at least putting his considerable resources toward the same goals. Thank you George Soros.

17) The 527's: The Joint Victory Campaign 2004, a consortium of organizations including Moveon.org, America Coming Together, the Media Fund, America Votes, and the Thunder Road Group along with others have turned this election cycle into one where Democrats have been able to manage a virtual and unprecedented financial parity with the GOP. At the same time, these groups have supplied Democrats with an enormous, talented, organized ground army as well as attack dogs that are able to proxy for the Dems when they couldn't involve themselves directly.

18) Newspaper endorsements: ...not they mean much by themselves, but as a group, an interesting phenomenon is occurring that might cause people to take notice. It seems that those newspapers across the nation that endorsed Gore are now endorsing Kerry - and those papers that endorsed Bush are now endorsing.....uh...well, some are endorsing Bush and some are now endorsing Kerry. Seems quite one-sided . Of course, I'm not suggesting that the editorial pages of America's newspapers represent Joe and Jane voter. But, the fact that prior Bush supporters, whomever they should be, are moving into the Kerry camp, while none of the Gore supporters are turning to Bush seems at least a tad bit telling.

19) The New Progressive Media: Beginnings of a true progressive media: The addition, since the 2000 election, of such institutions as Air America , the Center for American Progress , the Rockridge Institute , and Media Matters , along with the rise of the "progressive web" (Blogs, news and opinion sites, and headline aggregators) have given a new voice and a new outlet with which to air it. This emerges from the cloud of trash emanating from right-wing hate radio, Fox News, the Washington Times, the NY Post, etc. Of course this is just the beginning.

20) Better Informed Public: Voter fraud and intimidation has come under greater scrutiny. Hopefully this will cause the GOP to pause when they enact their schemes.

21) Better Educated Florida Electorate: Florida Voters are more aware and informed. Hopefully, that means that there will be fewer overvotes and undervotes. Hopefully people will know what to do if they feel they are a victim of voter intimidation. Hopefully Jewish seniors won't vote for Pat Buchanan. Hopefully, counties won't dabble in 'Butterfly' ballots.

22) Log Cabin Republicans: Log Cabin Republicans have abandoned Bush . This administration's flagrant and disgraceful bigotry targeted at gays has led the primary GOP organization for gays, one million strong, to forego any endorsement.. This means that the group, instead of sending out literature urging their members to vote for Bush, will be sending out information explaining that the administration's push to amend the constitution to define them as a second class citizenry has forced them to suggest that members stay home on election day. True, this doesn't mean that Bush will automatically lose one million votes, but consider this. Suppose 95% of the group’s members usually make it to the polls for a presidential election (An expected high percentage turnout is appropriate. It is a volunteer political organization after all). Now suppose only 30% of those are fed up enough not to vote (A reasonable, if not conservative estimate). That means 95% x 30% x 1,000,000 = 285,000 fewer votes will make it into Bush's electoral coffers than would otherwise have made it. To counter this effect, one might consider the increased number of votes from Bush's bigoted constituency, those who support the gay marriage amendment and who would not otherwise vote but for this issue.

23) Arab Americans: Arab Americans are abandoning Bush . This demographic went solidly for Bush in 2000. He will not receive their votes this year. "In just the four battleground states we're polling, over 200,000 Arab American voters have switched from the Republican to the Democratic column," said Jim Zogby, senior analyst for Zogby International, which specializes in Muslim and Arab polling. A Zogby poll of the four states in September projected a turnout of 510,000 Arab American voters. That includes 120,000 in Florida and 85,000 in Ohio - both of which went to Bush in 2000, along with their combined 46 electoral votes. The poll showed Kerry leading Bush in these states, 47 percent to 31.5 percent, with 9 percent backing independent candidate Ralph Nader. A second Zogby poll of 1,700 Muslim voters nationwide conducted for Georgetown University showed Kerry leading Bush, 68 percent to 7 percent, with 11 percent backing Nader. Zogby and other analysts estimate the Muslim electorate at around 2 million voters.

24) Cuban Americans: Bush owes much to the Cuban-American voters, particularly in Florida. Cubans are the only Latin American demographic which clearly favor Republicans and they are a voting force in Florida -- a necessary constituency if Bush hopes to pull Florida out of the bag once again. Recently, the Cuban American Commission for Family Rights announced their disfavor with the administration's policies in the following statement: President Bush's new Cuban sanctions policy creates more hardship for Cuban Americans, his voting constituency, than to the Cuban government and opens itself up to serious discriminatory legal actions, aside from loss of votes. This is the first time in the history of U.S. reunification policies that such policy goes against family reunification, discouraging visits and redefining the definition of who is family.

Coattail Indicators

25) Senate Races: NON-incumbent Democrats are running uncharacteristically strong in traditionally conservative strongholds. Dems are favored in such right-wing bastions as Alaska, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. And now we can add Kentucky to that list. The same is NOT true for NON-incumbent Republicans in traditional democratic strongholds.

26) Conservative Strongholds: Some conservative strongholds are in play, offering Kerry some nontraditional electoral opportunities including Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Colorado.

27) Vote Banking: Vote banking, voting prior to November 2nd (Not all states allow this), helped Gore take Iowa in 2000 and continues to help Kerry . This also helps alleviate long lines that typically occur in heavily populated Urban areas (i.e. Democratic Strongholds) on November 2nd and theoretically ensures that your vote gets counted. 'Irregularities' can be addressed prior to election day and voter intimidation is a more difficult prospect for the GOP during this period. Reports indicate that Vote Banking is in full stride, far outpacing any prior year. Along these lines, early voters , favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43 (Meaning those voters who voted prior to the official election day).

Common Wisdom

28) The 50% Rule: If an incumbent is experiencing approval ratings below 50%, he or she usually loses. The latest CBS News/NY Times poll gave Bush only a 44% approval rating. The average of the last 5 polls shows Bush's job approval even further below 50%: * Approve: 46%* Disapprove: 48.1%

29) Right Track, Wrong Track: Polls say that more people think the country is on the wrong track than those who say the right track. This can hardly work in Bush's favor. People believe the nation under Bush is headed in the wrong direction. The average of the last 11 polls citing whether the nation is heading in the Right/Wrong direction heavily disfavors Bush: * Right direction: 42% * Wrong Direction: 52%

30) Incumbent Rule: 'Undecideds' break at least 60-40% for the challenger. Also, an incumbent president rarely gets even more than 1% of the popular vote than the final polls show . If an incumbent is polling, 47%, 48% just before the election, that is probably what he will get. In contrast, the challenger always does much better than the final polls indicate!

31) Reelect: Bush's Reelect numbers are terrible. The average of the last 6 independent polls shows Bush's reelect numbers at: * Yes: 46.7%* No: 49.2%

Fire in the Belly

32) Rocketing Gas and Energy Prices: The price of gas serves as a constant reminder of Bush's failures in both foreign and domestic policy. Common wisdom says that people vote their pocket. Indeed, nobody cares what the price is for a barrel of oil ...unless it filters into higher gas and energy prices. This is a material impact on their pockets of average Americans and even if some won't admit it, they blame the problem, at least in part, on the government (currently headed by George W. Bush). People also understand that the invasion of Iraq has 'something' to do with these prices. Sure, Bush supporters are unlikely to vote for Kerry because of this, but it might subconsciously give reason for some to find themselves just a touch too busy to make it to the polls on election day.

33) The Bush Draft: The administration and its minions are trying desperately to quash the spreading speculation of a 'Bush Draft'. Despite their best efforts, the word continues to spread -- and with ill effects for Bush. Bush is helping us to get out the 'cell-phone-only' demographic - people aged 18-24.

34) Expatriates: Non-military expatriates are motivated to remove Bush (as are non-career military personnel). These are the people who have had to deal directly with the lashback from the rampant, Bush-inspired anti-Americanism that has flourished during the last four years.

35) The left is fired up!: This is the key ingredient to ensure maximum turnout by the left on election day. This is one thing we can all thank Bush for. The left is so outraged and disgusted with the policies, lies and crimes of this administration, that we wouldn't stay home on election day if it was raining darts (which is something I'm sure the GOP is working on.)

The bottom line is that Kerry will win on November 2nd.

So there!

- Michael 4:51 PM - [PermaLink] -

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I guess Bush voters do watch a lot of Fox News. Because the more you watch the less you know, and people who support Bush are less likely to know who he is.

Divide seen in voter knowledge

WASHINGTON -- Supporters of President Bush are less knowledgeable about the president's foreign policy positions and are more likely to be mistaken about factual issues in world affairs than voters who back John F. Kerry, a survey released yesterday indicated.

A large majority of self-identified Bush voters polled believe Saddam Hussein provided "substantial support" to Al Qaeda, and 47 percent believe that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction before the US invasion. Among the president's supporters, 57 percent queried think international public opinion favors Bush's reelection, and 51 percent believe that most Islamic countries support "US-led efforts to fight terrorism."

No weapons of mass destruction have been found in Iraq, the Sept. 11 Commission found no evidence of substantial Iraqi support for Al Qaeda, and international public opinion polls have shown widespread opposition to Bush's reelection.

In contrast, among Kerry supporters polled only 26 percent think Iraq had such weapons, 30 percent say Iraq was linked to Al Qaeda, and 1 percent said foreign public opinion favors Bush.

The polls results, said Steven Kull, the head of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, which conducted the survey, showed that Americans are so polarized two weeks before the election that many lack even a common understanding of the facts.

"It is rather unique the extent to which we have different perceptions of reality," Kull said.

On other international issues, the survey found that around 70 percent of Bush supporters responding believe that the president supports participation in the land mine treaty and the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty, and a narrower majority believes he supports the International Criminal Court and Kyoto Accords. In fact, Bush opposes all four treaties.

- rob 6:39 PM - [PermaLink] -

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A man who needs to make sure his locks work: West Virginia Elector Says He Might Not Vote For President Bush

CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- If President Bush wins West Virginia, one of the state's five Republican electors says he might not vote for Bush to protest the president's economic and foreign policies.

- rob 6:37 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Bush is campaigning. Cheney is campaigning. National Security Advisor Rice is campaigning. Tom Ridge (Homeland security dud) is campaigning. Secretary of Health and Human Services ignoring the flu issue and campaigning. Even the Secretary of the Treasury is campaigning... pointing out that any job loss is a "myth." So....

Edwards Wonders Who's Minding the Store

- rob 6:35 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Krugman: Voting and Counting

He who counts the votes controls the govenment.

- rob 6:32 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Lyrics and Chords to Bush Must Be Defeated

bush must be defeated
his evil gang unseated
his base of power deleted
his energy depleted

bush must be defeated
further services unneeded
his departure speeded
there's a land but you don't lead it

bush must be defeated
the rose garden weeded
a new frontier reseeded
we'll no longer let you bleed it

bush must be defeated
this mistake not be repeated
our desires not go unheeded
we will not twice be cheated

Read the whole thing... funny.

- rob 6:28 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Bush's "winning" the war on terror.

• 3 years later and the second biggest airport in the New York area is not safe
  
  P.A. chief: Airport security is broken

  The chairman of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has sent a stinging letter to federal aviation officials, charging there are "serious weaknesses" in the airline security system at Newark Liberty International Airport that must be fixed immediately.
  
  In his letter, Anthony Coscia, the bistate agency's chairman, tells a top U.S. security official he is concerned about a confidential report that shows that checkpoint screeners missed one in every four fake explosives or weapons smuggled through the airport in covert federal tests this past summer.

• We can't decide if we're freeing terrorists or turning peaceful people into terrorists... not a good selection of choices.
  
  Ex-Guantanamo detainee turns to terrorism
  Did he deceive the Pentagon or was he pushed to extremes?

  In the tribal area of Waziristan, Pakistani helicopter gunships and commandos hunt one of the country's most wanted militants — Abdullah Mehsud — a feared Taliban commander who is allegedly tied to al-Qaida. Mehsud's men recently took Pakistani soldiers and two Chinese engineers hostage.
  ...
  The Mehsud story is more than a bit embarrassing for the United States. Until last March, Mehsud was in prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba — having been captured fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, a Pentagon review board decided to release him, ruling Mehsud was not a security threat.
  
  "It is obvious now you can say that the Americans made a mistake," says Maj. Gen. Niaz Khattak, a Pakistani general now leading the manhunt.
  
  In fact, some villagers now consider Mehsud a hero because he seems to have outwitted the Americans and tricked them into releasing him.
  
  Experts say it's possible Mehsud was always a hardcore militant and deceived his captors.
  
  "The other possibility is that the two years in captivity was itself a radicalizing experience," says terrorism expert Brian Jenkins.

• And Bush's method of attacking terrorism is mired in cold war thinking... he only fights states... not terrorists (and giving up on finding terrorists to go find another state to attack).
  
  Afghanistan, Iraq: Two Wars Collide

  In the second half of March 2002, as the Bush administration mapped its next steps against al Qaeda, Deputy CIA Director John E. McLaughlin brought an unexpected message to the White House Situation Room. According to two people with firsthand knowledge, he told senior members of the president's national security team that the CIA was scaling back operations in Afghanistan.
  
  That announcement marked a year-long drawdown of specialized military and intelligence resources from the geographic center of combat with Osama bin Laden. As jihadist enemies reorganized, slipping back and forth from Pakistan and Iran, the CIA closed forward bases in the cities of Herat, Mazar-e Sharif and Kandahar. The agency put off an $80 million plan to train and equip a friendly intelligence service for the new U.S.-installed Afghan government. Replacements did not keep pace with departures as case officers finished six-week tours. And Task Force 5 -- a covert commando team that led the hunt for bin Laden and his lieutenants in the border region -- lost more than two-thirds of its fighting strength.
  
  The commandos, their high-tech surveillance equipment and other assets would instead surge toward Iraq through 2002 and early 2003, as President Bush prepared for the March invasion that would extend the field of battle in the nation's response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
  ...
  The contention that the Iraq invasion was an unwise diversion in confronting terrorism has been central to Kerry's critique of Bush's performance. But this account -- drawn largely from interviews with those who have helped manage Bush's offensive -- shows how the debate over that question has echoed within the ranks of the administration as well, even among those who support much of the president's agenda.
  
  Interviews with those advisers also highlight an internal debate over Bush's strategy against al Qaeda and allied jihadists, which has stressed the "decapitation" of the network by capturing or killing leaders, but which has had less success in thwarting recruitment of new militants.
  ...
  Bush's focus on the instruments of force, the officials said, has been slow to adapt to a swiftly changing enemy. Al Qaeda, they said, no longer exerts centralized control over a network of operational cells. It has rather become the inspirational hub of a global movement, fomenting terrorism that it neither funds nor directs. Internal government assessments describe this change with a disquieting metaphor: They say jihadist terrorism is "metastasizing."
  
  The war has sometimes taken unexpected turns, one of which brought the Bush administration into hesitant contact with Iran. For a time the two governments made tentative common cause, and Iran delivered hundreds of low-level al Qaeda figures to U.S. allies. Participants in Washington and overseas said Bush's deadlocked advisers -- unable to transmit instructions -- closed that channel before testing Iran's willingness to take more substantial steps. Some of al Qaeda's most wanted leaders now live in Iran under ambiguous conditions of house arrest.

Damn this is a mess that Bush has made so much more messier that even messy marvin would be disgusted. Kerry needs not only to win, but he needs to be really really good.

- rob 11:16 AM - [PermaLink] -

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Voting Update... as bad as you imagined.
"I cast my vote for president. I voted for Kerry and a check mark for Bush appeared," he said.

Some Voters Say Machines Failed, Incorrect Choices Appear on Screens

She's among the people in Bernalillo and Sandoval counties who say they have had trouble with early voting equipment. When they have tried to vote for a particular candidate, the touch-screen system has said they voted for somebody else.
It's a problem that can be fixed by the voters themselves— people can alter the selections on their ballots, up to the point when they indicate they are finished and officially cast the ballot.
For Griffith, it took a lot of altering.
She went to Valle Del Norte Community Center in Albuquerque, planning to vote for John Kerry. "I pushed his name, but a green check mark appeared before President Bush's name," she said.
Griffith erased the vote by touching the check mark at Bush's name. That's how a voter can alter a touch-screen ballot.
She again tried to vote for Kerry, but the screen again said she had voted for Bush. The third time, the screen agreed that her vote should go to Kerry.
She faced the same problem repeatedly as she filled out the rest of the ballot. On one item, "I had to vote five or six times," she said.
Michael Cadigan, president of the Albuquerque City Council, had a similar experience when he voted at City Hall.
"I cast my vote for president. I voted for Kerry and a check mark for Bush appeared," he said

The people in charge of the elections however have been assured by Diebold (or one of the others) that nothing can go wrong (because computers are perfect don't you know) and that it must be human error.

Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera said she doesn't believe the touch-screen system has been making mistakes. It's the fault of voters, she said Thursday.
Cadigan, for example, could have "leaned his palm on the touch screen and it hit the wrong button," she said.
In Sandoval County, three Rio Rancho residents said they had a similar problem, with opposite results. They said a touch-screen machine switched their presidential votes from Bush to Kerry.

And despite what is shown on the screen no one has any idea whatsoever the vote that is recorded by the computer is correct.

- rob 10:46 AM - [PermaLink] -

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Where I live you'll find many many Bush Cheney 2004 lawn signs and only a few Kerry Edwards signs. There are two reasons for this.

1. This is a very Republican area.
2. Someone is stealing Kerry Edwards signs... they disappear every night.

Now I've assumed the sign stealer was a little bit over zealous soon to be frat boy teen. Maybe I was wrong.

For sign pilferer, politicians aren't only ones falling flat on their face

A Lakewood Republican stealing campaign signs late one night got nabbed when he ran across a low- hanging driveway chain, fell face first onto a pilfered sign and the concrete and knocked himself unconscious.

Randal Wagner, 50, was loaded into an ambulance, treated at Lutheran Medical Center for abrasions and facial cuts and issued a summons.
...
"I did a very stupid thing," Wagner said Monday, admitting theft of the signs. "I got caught up in the political passions of this highly contested election."

My God, is eveyone scripted?

- rob 10:34 AM - [PermaLink] -

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Earlier I meant to link to an article that surveyed viewers of news shows vs. late night tv vewiers vs. Jon Stewart Daily Show viewers. What they found was that 24 hour news channel viewers were the least informed about current events (they scored worse on a quiz). Basically with cable news it seems the more you watch the less you know. Late night viewers did better, but viewers of the Daily Show were the most informed.

Its why it is the number one choice for fake news.

Jon Stewart is apalled that his (extremely funny) comedy show is better at informing viewers then news shows. He knows that is wrong.

No Jokes or Spin. It's Time (Gasp) to Talk.

Jon Stewart could not resist a last dig at CNN's "Crossfire" during his monologue on Comedy Central on Monday night . "They said I wasn't being funny," the star of "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" said, rolling his eyes expressively. "And I said to them: 'I know that. But tomorrow I will go back to being funny," Mr. Stewart said, adding that their show would still be bad, although he used a more vulgar expression.

And that is why his surprise attack on the hosts of CNN's "Crossfire" was so satisfying last Friday. Exchanging his usual goofy teasing for withering contempt, he told Paul Begala and Tucker Carlson that they were partisan hacks and that their pro-wrestling approach to political discourse was "hurting America." (He also used an epithet for the male reproductive organ to describe Mr. Carlson.)
...
The transcript of Friday's "Crossfire," and the blog commentary about it, popped up all over the Internet this weekend. Mr. Stewart's Howard Beal (of "Network") outburst stood out because he said what a lot of viewers feel helpless to correct: that news programs, particularly on cable, have become echo chambers for political attacks, amplifying the noise instead of parsing the misinformation. Whether the issue is Swift boat ads or Bill O'Reilly's sexual harassment suit, shows like "Crossfire" or "Hardball" provide gladiator-style infotainment as journalists clownishly seek to amuse or rile viewers, not inform them.

When Mr. Carlson took the offense, charging that Mr. Stewart had no right to complain since he had asked Senator John Kerry softball questions on "The Daily Show," Mr. Stewart looked genuinely appalled. "I didn't realize - and maybe this explains quite a bit - that the news organizations look to Comedy Central for their cues on integrity." When Mr. Carlson continued to argue, Mr. Stewart shut him down hard. "You are on CNN," he said. "The show that leads into me is puppets making crank phone calls."

Here's the Crossfire segment (if you have the bandwidth)

and here's Jon Stewart's followup on his next show "What did you do on Friday? I called someone a dick on national television." (quicktime and nice bandwidth required).

- rob 5:28 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Bush Recovery? Eh?

Two weeks before the election and the Dow is over 100 away from 10,000.


Bush says he inherited a weak economy (yeah there was a little tip.. but it was going away), Bush says 9/11 hurt the market (yeah, but look at that recovery).. no it seems like the market just realized that Bush was President... and from that it still hasn't recovered.

And now we're talking recession?

Leading Economic Indicator index declines

NEW YORK - The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a widely watched barometer of future economic activity, edged lower in September for the fourth month in a row, indicating a slowing in economic growth, a private research group reported Thursday.

The Conference Board said that its indicator of upcoming activity in the economy fell 0.1 percent last month, following declines of 0.3 percent in August and 0.3 percent in July.

Okay, no recession yet, no way, but it does say that after multiple HUGE giveaways to his real base ("the have mores") the economy still sucks. Maybe giving tax cuts to folks who in turn won't spend the money on goods that spur growth wasn't a good idea. (you think? I mean who'd of thunk?)

- rob 4:45 PM - [PermaLink] -

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You know what happens when you employ Rumsfeld and Cheney and run for re-election!

You Lose
(just ask Ford)

- rob 1:02 PM - [PermaLink] -

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RNC operative Sproul & Associates strikes again... think you registered to vot in Pennsylvania? You may not have.

Campaign 2004: Voter registration workers cry foul

An ostensibly nonpartisan voter registration drive in Western Pennsylvania has triggered accusations that workers were cheated out of wages and given instructions to avoid adding anyone to the voter rolls who might support the Democratic presidential nominee.

Sproul & Associates, a consulting firm based in Chandler, Ariz., hired to conduct the drive by the Republican National Committee, employed several hundred canvassers throughout the state to register new voters. Some workers yesterday said they were told to avoid registering Democrats or anyone who indicated support for Democratic nominee John F. Kerry.

"We were told that if they wanted to register Democrat, there was no way we were to register them to vote," said Michele Tharp, of Meadville, who said she was sent out to canvass door-to-door and outside businesses in Meadville, Crawford County. "We were only to register Republicans."
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The firm attracted attention in Pittsburgh last month when Sproul employees called a Carnegie Library official to request space outside the buildings to register voters.

Holly McCullough, special assistant to the library director, said a woman from the firm said they were working for America Votes, the nonpartisan but liberal leaning organization.

McCullough said she agreed to allow the group to set up at the libraries.

"I said there has to be no issue advocacy. It has to do nonpartisan voter registration and they said that was right," McCullough said. Instead, several days later, McCullough received a call from Ryan Hughes, director of the Woods Run library branch, saying patrons had complained about the behavior of the canvassers.

Hughes said a patron came in the library Sept. 7 "and said 'There's this person out there asking me who I was voting for.' "But McCullough said she also became concerned because she discovered that Sproul was not working for America Votes, and that the registration drive was being organized by the Republican Party.

- rob 12:17 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Game 7, Yankees Lose

Kerry can win!

FEAR Just Turned the Corner.

I BELIEVE*


*fuck Rudolf A. Giuliani and Occupied New York. Viva la Liberté!!! And screw George Bush

- Michael 1:26 AM - [PermaLink] -

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The Axis of Evil Agrees: George Bush for President

Bush Receives Endorsement From Iran

TEHRAN, Iran - The head of Iran's security council said Tuesday that the re-election of President Bush was in Tehran's best interests, despite the administration's axis of evil label, accusations that Iran harbors al-Qaida terrorists and threats of sanctions over the country's nuclear ambitions.
...
Iranian political analyst Mohsen Mofidi said ousting the Taliban and Saddam was the "biggest service any administration could have done for Iran."

And Bush, he said, has learned from his mistakes.

"The experience of two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the responsibility Bush had, will make it a very remote possibility for him to risk attacking a much bigger and more powerful country like Iran," he said.

Mofidi added that "Democrats usually insist on human rights and they will have more excuses to pressure Iran."

Republican and Democratic presidents have issued executive orders against Iran, with Reagan in 1987 barring Iranian crude oil and other imports, and Bill Clinton in 1995 banning U.S. trade and investment in Iran.

"We should not forget that most sanctions and economic pressures were imposed on Iran during the time of Clinton," Rowhani said. "And we should not forget that during Bush's era — despite his hard-line and baseless rhetoric against Iran — he didn't take, in practical terms, any dangerous action against Iran."

- rob 3:56 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Pat Robertson: God Flip flops!!

Robertson: I warned Bush on Iraq casualties
President's response: 'We're not going to have any'

"And I warned him about this war. I had deep misgivings about this war, deep misgivings. And I was trying to say, 'Mr. President, you had better prepare the American people for casualties.' "

Robertson said the president then told him, "Oh, no, we're not going to have any casualties."
...
"I mean, the Lord told me it was going to be A, a disaster, and B, messy," Robertson said. "I warned him about casualties."

If Bush consulted with God about this war why didn't God tell Bush it was going to be A, a disaster, and B, messy. Is Bush lying? Is Robertson lying? Does God flip-flop?

If anything this "revelation" may reduce the scary fundy Christian (not Christians in general... just the scary ones) turnout for the savior George Walker BushJr. (666 ha!)

- rob 3:49 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Cheney: You're Not Scared Enough

Cheney: Terrorists May Bomb U.S. Cities

CARROLL, Ohio (AP) - Vice President Dick Cheney on Tuesday raised the possibility of terrorists bombing U.S. cities with nuclear weapons and questioned whether Sen. John Kerry could combat such an "ultimate threat ... you've got to get your mind around."

"The biggest threat we face now as a nation is the possibility of terrorists ending up in the middle of one of our cities with deadlier weapons than have ever before been used against us - biological agents or a nuclear weapon or a chemical weapon of some kind to be able to threaten the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans," Cheney said.

"That's the ultimate threat. For us to have a strategy that's capable of defeating that threat, you've got to get your mind around that concept," Cheney said.

You've got to get your mind around this, if an attack happens before the election it is because the terrorists want you to vote for Kerry, so America must vote for Bush. If an attack doesn't happen then it is because Bush is so damn good at killing terrorists. If Bush wins the election and there is a terrorist attack it is because the terrorists are scared of Bush and they are acting out of desperation. If Kerry wins and there is a terrorist attack, don't say we didn't warn you. If Bush wins and there is no terrorist attack it is because Kerry is so damn good at killing terrorists, if Kerry wins it is still because Bush is so damn good at killing terrorists.

Bush/Cheney 04 - the choice that works for all realities, future, past, and imagined!

- rob 2:33 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Rove can't take the lies anymore... lies in front of air force one

Rove lays down in front of the landing gear of Air Force One. (Photo: AP)

Top Bush Aide Does A Wheelie

Returning to the aircraft after Mr. Bush's foreign policy speech, the two men traded words. As Mr. Bush climbed the stairs, his top political adviser set his briefcase down in front of the tires and stretched out on the ground with his back to the wheels.

Rove stood back up moments later; a smiling Bush waved from the plane and they both got aboard.

"It was a humorous moment on the campaign trail," was all Bush campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel would say about Rove's antic.

And then there was the time Rove pretended to hang himself... that was hilarious.

- rob 1:32 PM - [PermaLink] -

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American League

Watching the Yankees-Red Sox division series playoff game 6 last night, I was incensed at the presence of riot cops flooding the field in the eighth inning after a call against the home team. Here's a poignant e-mail exchange that speaks to the moment and the fragility of an eighteenth-century constitutional democracy. Iraq isn't the only country now permanently occupied by the American military.

Me: Did anybody notice the riot cops flooding the field after a call against the Yankees in the 8th inning, when they were losing in game 6 against the Red Sox? WHAT THE FUCK???

This is Baseball. Why the FUCK are riot cops involved? Because the Yankees are actually losing to Boston, fair and square? Is this the Shape of Things to Come?

Goddammit. That fucking pissed me off.

P: Fuck yeah! I was in the bar and stood up, gave a Hitler salute and a hearty
"Sieg Hiel" "Sieg Hiel". Fuckin' [H] pushed my arm down and said "Not now
P-". Bitch, I bought her a drink. How fucked up was that. Especially after
ARod knocked the ball out the pitcher's hand. The "A" is for "Adolf"....

Me: If not now, when?

My waking thought was that if the Red Sox manage to fucking beat the Yankees
in Game 7, then Kerry actually has a shot at the Oval Office.

I doubt it, though.

J: I thought it was the physical representation of the presidential race, and
in the 9th when the Yankees put 2 men on, I was screaming at the TV, as
though they were stealing the election again.

Me: The older I get, the more I know why Elvis shot the TV.

- Michael 1:18 PM - [PermaLink] -

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If you have quicktime watch how Bush's audience has to inform him of his postion on the draft.

onegoodmove.org/1gm - George W. Bush All Volunteer Army 10/16/04

The audience seems fine with the idea that he's an idiot.

- rob 12:38 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Yet another Republican: 'Frightened to death' of Bush
A FORMER REPUBLICAN SENATOR FOR KERRY

I have been, and will continue to be, a Republican. But when we as a party send the wrong person to the White House, then it is our responsibility to send him home if our nation suffers as a result of his actions. I fall in the category of good conservative thinkers, like George F. Will, for instance, who wrote: "This administration cannot be trusted to govern if it cannot be counted on to think and having thought, to have second thoughts."
...
I have just turned 78. During my lifetime, we have sent 31,377,741 Americans to war, not including whatever will be the final figures for the Iraq fiasco. Of those, 502,722 died and 928,980 came home without legs, arms or what have you.

Those wars were to defend freedom throughout the free world from communism, dictators and tyrants. Now Americans are the aggressors — we start the wars, we blow up all the infrastructure in those countries, and then turn around and spend tax dollars denying our nation an excellent education system, medical and drug programs, and the list goes on. ...

I hope you all have noticed the Bush administration's style in the campaign so far. All negative, trashing Sen. John Kerry, Sen. John Edwards and Democrats in general. Not once have they said what they have done right, what they have done wrong or what they have not done at all.
...
I am not enamored with John Kerry, but I am frightened to death of George Bush. I fear a secret government. I abhor a government that refuses to supply the Congress with requested information. I am against a government that refuses to tell the country with whom the leaders of our country sat down and determined our energy policy, and to prove how much they want to keep that secret, they took it all the way to the Supreme Court.

Sounds like this former Republican Senator reads TCS.

- rob 12:31 PM - [PermaLink] -

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A repeat but it goes well with the post below:

Janklow Criticizes GOP Vote Effort

Bill Janklow's commenting on the resignation of six people connected with the state Republican Party over absentee ballot applications.

The former governor and congressman says the national GOP is encouraging campaign workers to cheat. He says his ire is directed at the Republican Party's Victory operation, which helps register people and get them to the polls.

- rob 6:23 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Because the Democracy and Freedom Bush says he supports worldwide really isn't what he wants here

Phone-jamming was an outrage
Republicans should speak out in anger
by Bob Smith (Bob Smith is a former U.S senator from New Hampshire)

"People above politics." Remember? Those words from former governor Meldrim Thomson comprise arguably the best remembered slogan in New Hampshire political history.

I personally witnessed Mel Thomson, a Republican, ill and in severe pain, force himself up from his seat to shake hands with then recently elected Democrat Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. He did it because he was a gentleman, but he also did it to show respect for the governor and for the people who elected her in a fair election a few months before.

That was yesterday.

Today we hear news that Charles McGee, the former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, and Allen Raymond, a GOP consultant, pleaded guilty to federal charges stemming from their involvement in the jamming of telephones on Election Day, Nov. 5, 2002. Democrats' computer-generated calls to get out the vote were blocked and thus voters did not receive the intended message due to illegal action by some in the Republican Party.

At their plea hearings in U.S. District Court, McGee and Raymond admitted they spoke to an "unidentified official with a national political organization" about the illegality. As sad and deplorable as those actions were, regrettably, Republican Party officials in New Hampshire and Washington have decided to put "politics above people" and delay this much needed and urgent investigation of the facts.

- rob 6:22 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Because after god created the grand canyon with a big flood he announced that Jesus was a whimp and he actually wants you to support Bush. "that whole love the sinner and turn the cheek crap just wasn't working for me any more... it seems weak, if I as God am supposed to be a leader I need to be more resolute. I need to be seen as strong. That's why I support Bush in 2004."

Evangelicals endeavor to redeem the vote

President Bush's re-election campaign is getting a boost from powerful Christian groups, which are enlisting entertainers such as actor Jim Caviezel of "The Passion of the Christ" to cajole millions of evangelicals into voting.

One of the newest groups is Redeem the Vote, the religious community's answer to MTV's secular Rock the Vote. The group is touring battleground states with Christian rock groups and voter-registration drives that organizers say are putting the fear of God into Sen. John Kerry's supporters.

Ohhhh I'm soooo scared.

- rob 6:17 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Can we say "Rice"?

The 9/11 Secret in the CIA's Back Pocket
The agency is withholding a damning report that points at senior officials.

It is shocking: The Bush administration is suppressing a CIA report on 9/11 until after the election, and this one names names. Although the report by the inspector general's office of the CIA was completed in June, it has not been made available to the congressional intelligence committees that mandated the study almost two years ago.

"It is infuriating that a report which shows that high-level people were not doing their jobs in a satisfactory manner before 9/11 is being suppressed," an intelligence official who has read the report told me, adding that "the report is potentially very embarrassing for the administration, because it makes it look like they weren't interested in terrorism before 9/11, or in holding people in the government responsible afterward."

When I asked about the report, Rep. Jane Harman (D-Venice), ranking Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, said she and committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) sent a letter 14 days ago asking for it to be delivered. "We believe that the CIA has been told not to distribute the report," she said. "We are very concerned."

The Bush Administration where an educated voter is their worst customer.

- rob 6:05 PM - [PermaLink] -

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And After God created the Grand Canyon he said on to Bush "blow someone up in my name."

PARK SERVICE STICKS WITH BIBLICAL EXPLANATION FOR GRAND CANYON
Promised Legal Review on Creationist Book Is Shelved

Washington, DC — The Bush Administration has decided that it will stand by its approval for a book claiming the Grand Canyon was created by Noah’s flood rather than by geologic forces, according to internal documents released today by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER).

Despite telling members of Congress and the public that the legality and appropriateness of the National Park Service offering a creationist book for sale at Grand Canyon museums and bookstores was “under review at the national level by several offices,” no such review took place, according to materials obtained by PEER under the Freedom of Information Act.

- rob 6:03 PM - [PermaLink] -

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America 2004

You can fool just the right amount of people all of the time.

- Michael 6:44 PM - [PermaLink] -

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It's still Moday: The Top Ten Conservative Idiots, No. 175

2. Spittle and Smirk
There's no question that Bush seemed somewhat calmer during the third debate than he did during his two previous encounters with Senator Kerry. There is, however, a question which needs answering: what the hell was so funny?

Dubya spent the entire debate with a shit-eating grin on his face that frankly seemed quite out of place considering the seriousness of the subjects brought up for discussion. While Kerry spoke, George stared across at him with a strange, twisted smirk on his face - and if the smirk was a plot intended to reassure voters by reminding them that their president wasn't a) the stumbling buffon they'd seen during the first debate, or b) the PCP-enhanced turbo-prez they'd seen during the second, the plot failed.

When it was George's turn to speak, he answered every question with the same bizarre grin. Bin Laden? Chortle. Abortion? Beam. Unemployment? Simper. And as the New York Times reported, "Yet even his smile was askew for about half the debate, marred by a glistening light dot at the right corner of his mouth. Viewers could be forgiven for losing track of his answers and imagining Laura Bush in the front row in frantic semaphore, wiping furiously at the corner of her own mouth."

If the voters tuned in to this debate hoping for some inspiration from George W. Bush, it must have been something of a disappointment to witness the spectacle of a drooling president whose response to the devastating failures of his domestic policies was "don't worry, be happy."

Perhaps that's why CBS's scientific poll of undecided voters showed Kerry the winner by 39% to 25%, CNN's showed Kerry the winner by 52% to 29%, and ABC's showed Kerry the winner by 42% to 41% (which isn't quite so impressive until you find out that ABC's polling group was 38% Republican, 30% Democratic).

- rob 3:42 PM - [PermaLink] -

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TCS - an ugly, ungrammatical (save for Michael), and misspelled (ditto) member of the Reality-Based Community.

In the summer of 2002, after I had written an article in Esquire that the White House didn't like about Bush's former communications director, Karen Hughes, I had a meeting with a senior adviser to Bush. He expressed the White House's displeasure, and then he told me something that at the time I didn't fully comprehend -- but which I now believe gets to the very heart of the Bush presidency.

The aide said that guys like me were ''in what we call the reality-based community,'' which he defined as people who ''believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.'' I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. ''That's not the way the world really works anymore,'' he continued. ''We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors . . . and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.''

Who besides guys like me are part of the reality-based community?

- rob 3:29 PM - [PermaLink] -

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I guess it was never provided.

Post-war planning non-existent

WASHINGTON - In March 2003, days before the start of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, American war planners and intelligence officials met at Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina to review the Bush administration's plans to oust Saddam Hussein and implant democracy in Iraq.

Near the end of his presentation, an Army lieutenant colonel who was giving a briefing showed a slide describing the Pentagon's plans for rebuilding Iraq after the war, known in the planners' parlance as Phase 4-C. He was uncomfortable with his material - and for good reason.

The slide said: "To Be Provided."

- rob 3:22 PM - [PermaLink] -

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A funny post. Someone has an archive of the Bush / Cheney website from 2000. It reads as if they are running against themselves.

Daily Kos :: BC2000 Website Archived

If you are tired of the bitterness that poisons our politics, come join us. If you think that government should be less partisan and more practical, come join us. If you are weary of polls and posturing, of scandals and alibis, come join us.
But, let me tell you some things I won't do.
I won't run our armed forces ragged with no thought for tomorrow - driving our military like a rental car. For this administration, a strong defense is something they expect from their lawyers.

I won't ignore our allies. I will be their friends when we don't need them, so they will be our friends when we do.

Read the post for even more hilarious excerpts.

- rob 3:09 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Donate to the DSCC! We might actually take back the Senate from Frist and the ghosts of all the cats he killed.

It will need cash of course so all the rich Senators are matching: Your Dollars Matched Through Oct. 28.

We need to take the Senate and House, at the very least so we can begin impeachment hearings if Bush steals the election again.

- rob 3:07 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Elmer L. Andersen: Why this Republican ex-governor will be voting for Kerry

Sen. John Kerry was correct when he said that seemingly it is only Bush and Dick Cheney who still believe their own spin. Both men spew outright untruths with evangelistic fervor.
...
In both presidential debates, Kerry has shown himself to be of far superior intellect and character than Bush. He speaks honestly to the American people, his ethics are unimpeachable and, clearly, with 20 respected years in the Senate, he has far better credentials to lead the country than did Bush when he was elected four years ago. And a far greater depth of understanding of domestic and foreign affairs to do it now.

Not that the sitting president has ever really been at the helm.

I am more fearful for the state of this nation than I have ever been -- because this country is in the hands of an evil man: Dick Cheney. It is eminently clear that it is he who is running the country, not George W. Bush.

Bush's phony posturing as cocksure leader of the free world -- symbolized by his victory symbol on the aircraft carrier and "mission accomplished" statement -- leave me speechless. The mission had barely been started, let alone finished, and 18 months later it still rages on. His ongoing "no-regrets," no-mistakes stance and untruths on the war -- as well as on the floundering economy and Bush administration joblessness -- also disappoint and worry me.

Liberal Republicans of my era and mind-set used to have a humane and reasonable platform. We advocated the importance of higher education, health care for all, programs for children at risk, energy conservation and environmental protection. Today, Bush and Cheney give us clever public relations names for programs -- need I say "No Child Left Behind? -- but a lack of funding to support them. Early childhood education programs and overall health care are woefully underfunded. We have not only the largest number ever of medically uninsured in this nation, our infant mortality rates, once among the lowest in the world, have worsened to 27th.

- rob 1:47 PM - [PermaLink] -

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Happy to be blue on a Monday morning.

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

(it's still a tie, but still nice to see).

- rob 9:24 AM - [PermaLink] -

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"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American people."
- Teddy Roosevelt



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 - Franklin Delano Roosevelt



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- Thomas Jefferson



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- James Madison



"I believe in human dignity as the source of national purpose, in human liberty as the source of national action, in the human heart as the source of national compassion, and in the human mind as the source of our invention and our ideas. It is, I believe, the faith in our fellow citizens as individuals and as people that lies at the heart of the liberal faith. For liberalism is not so much a party creed or set of fixed platform promises as it is an attitude of mind and heart, a faith in man's ability through the experiences of his reason and judgment to increase for himself and his fellow men the amount of justice and freedom and brotherhood which all human life deserves."
- John F. Kennedy



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- Dwight D. Eisenhower

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"There's nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed by what's right with America." - Bill Clinton.