In other words: A discussion of The Bush Administration
A comment posted to this story says it best:Either:A post on DKos about exit polls and analysis of said polls.
a) The exit polls, conducted by hundreds of people across the nation, were entirely wrong, or
b) The vote counting, conducted by machines manufactured and programmed by blatantly partisan companies, was entirely wrong.
Now, take into account that every theory which accounts for mistaken exit polls has not been proven, while numerous proven instances of vote counting errors have turned up. Which would you say is more likely?
Remember In America Exit Polls that said Bush lost were proof that Exit polling should stop, and Exit Pollis in the Ukraine proved voter fraud, caused a new election, overturned the results and were priased for being the last safeguard in ensuring a fair vote. Interesting.
Daily Kos :: The 2004 Election Was StolenThe latest is the analysis posted below in its entirety (converted from PDF for convenience and posterity) by Jonathan D. Simon, J.D. and Ron P. Baiman, Ph.D. from Institute of Government and Public Affairs - University of Illinois at Chicago. This paper, combined with others, namely Freeman, is as close to a "smoking gun" as you will ever find.These same exit polls everyone is saying are wrong, are the same exit polls the right is using to prove that "values" was the winning factor. So are the polls wrong or right?
...
Also, some fail to appreciate the significance of exit polls for proving election theft. The power of statistical evidence should be well known. DNA or fingerprint analysis is actually statistical in nature. The veracity of such evidence is derived from a statistical probability that no one else shares those traits. By the same token, if the election outcome is statistically improbable, by a factor of 1000 or more, you can pretty much take it to the bank that the outcome is wrong.
`Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence', I heard recently. This assertion is built on the false premise that rigging an election in the United States is somehow extraordinary. Considering the history of US elections, and the stakes involved, and the fact that 80% of all votes in the US were either cast on, or counted by two private corporations owned by Republicans, this and all elections should be suspect from the start.
History will judge us harshly for this election. Not just the Bush administration, but the media, the Democrats, and the online community as well. Future historians will no doubt get a chuckle for the providence of the Ukraine fiasco falling so closely behind our own. But mostly, when they examine the American response to the exit poll discrepancies of the 2004 election, they will be saddened by the blaring naiveté, maliciousness, and cowardice.The 2004 Presidential Election: Who Won The Popular Vote?
An Examination of the Comparative Validity of Exit Poll and Vote Count Data
...
Executive Summary
- There is a substantial discrepancy--well outside the margin of error and outcomedeterminative--
between the national exit poll and the popular vote count.- The possible causes of the discrepancy would be random error, a skewed exit poll, or
breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count.- Analysis shows that the discrepancy cannot reasonably be accounted for by chance or
random error.- Evidence does not support hypotheses that the discrepancy was produced by problems
with the exit poll.- Widespread breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote
count are the most likely explanations for the discrepancy.- In an accurate count of a free and fair election, the strong likelihood is that Kerry
would have been the winner of the popular vote.
...
The reaction of election night analysts interpreting this differential was
immediately to query what had "gone wrong" with the exit polls. This was a curious
approach both in light of standard accounting practice, which compels independent
examination of both sets of numbers that are found to be in conflict, and in light of muchvoiced
pre-election concerns about the accuracy and security of the computerized vote
counting systems.
...
Conclusion
In light of the history of exit polling and the particular care that was taken to
achieve an unprecedented degree of accuracy in the exit polls for Election 2004, there is
little to suggest significant flaws in the design or administration of the official exit polls.
Until supportive evidence can be presented for any hypothesis to the contrary, it must be
concluded that the exit polls, including the national mega-sample within its ±1.1%
margin of error, present us with an accurate measure of the intent of the voters in the
presidential election of 2004.
According to this measure, an honest and fair voting process would have been
more likely than not--at least 95% likely, in fact--to have determined John Kerry to be
the national popular vote winner of Election 2004.31 Should ongoing or new
investigations continue to produce evidence that, to an extent determinative of the
electoral college outcome, votes have not been counted accurately and honestly or
discriminatory vote suppression has occurred, the re-examined popular vote outcome
may well be deemed relevant to the question of what remedies are warranted.
Jackson thinks something is up: (and that at least means the issue will get some play in the media)
‘We Will Not Faint’
Jesse Jackson on why he thinks John Kerry really won the election
(a newsweek online exclusive... i.e. won't be read by Newsweek subscribers)
- rob 5:30 PM - [PermaLink] -
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